DETROIT (ChurchMilitant.com) – Seeing no viable victory path toward the Republican nomination, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie suspended his presidential campaign yesterday evening in an address to New Hampshire town hall attendees and the media.
Going out as he came in, Christie again focused most of his closing remarks on attacking former President Donald Trump and reiterated his goal of working to prevent him from again winning the national election: “If we put him back behind the desk at the Oval Office and a choice is needed to be made about whether to put himself first or you [the public] first, how much more evidence do you need? He will put himself first.”
Chris Christie (photo by Gage Skidmore)
On the eve of the Iowa Caucus vote scheduled for Monday, Christie’s departure will likely have little effect on the Hawkeye State outcome, but his absence could potentially move the political needle in New Hampshire.
Some Granite State polls show former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley gaining on former President Donald Trump, with Christie recording double-digit support in third place. The CNN/University of New Hampshire poll sees Trump holding only a 39–32–12–5% lead over Haley, Christie and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, respectively.
But the USA Today/Suffolk University poll conducted during a similar period arrived at a much different result. In their ballot test, Trump held a 46–26–12–8% advantage over Haley, Christie and DeSantis.
In either case, the vast majority of Christie supporters moving toward Haley would have a major effect on the outcome of the Jan. 23 GOP primary.
At this point, it appears clear that New Hampshire is the only early state where Trump is showing any vulnerability. Once the Iowa Caucuses conclude on Monday, the campaign moves to New Hampshire, then to Nevada, South Carolina and Michigan all before March 5, also known as Super Tuesday.
Even if she were to score an upset in New Hampshire, the big showdown would come in Haley’s home state of South Carolina before an electorate that twice elected her governor. At this point, however, the former Palmetto State chief executive’s support places her well behind Trump.
The Emerson College South Carolina survey posts Trump at a 54–25% lead over Haley in her own state.
Leads in other states are even larger. Trump is consistently running over 50% in Iowa polls, with Haley and DeSantis not even combining for 30%. The state’s most accurate pollster, Selzer & Company for The Des Moines Register, will likely publish its final poll tomorrow or Saturday.
In Nevada, where the delegates are going to be assigned through competition at the various caucus meetings, they do not even include Haley on the ballot. She, instead, has filed in the companion Republican primary, where the votes do not relate to delegate acquisition. Haley is the only major candidate to file for the Nevada primary election and not the caucus procedure.
Polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada can be viewed at this link: RealClearPolitics polling summary
Looking at Michigan, polling from October through December finds Trump breaking the 60% threshold over the entire Republican field in the majority of surveys. The Michigan polls can be viewed here: FiveThirtyEight Michigan GOP polling
Therefore, regardless of what happens in New Hampshire, Trump appears to be on a clear-cut course to effectively clinch the nomination on Super Tuesday, where voters from 15 states and one territory will cast their ballots. It is difficult to see how one of Trump’s opponents, from what is now a winnowing field, could amass enough momentum to overtake him for the nomination even if he hits a bump on the political road in New Hampshire.
Dems Already Preparing for 2028
Although it appears that we’re headed toward a 2024 rematch between Biden and Trump, the 2028 presidential race will be open, since neither man will be able to seek reelection in four years. Already, we see several Democratic governors making moves in anticipation of that impending campaign. Governors Wes Moore, D-Md., and Andy Beshear, D-Ky., have each formed federal political action committees to help Democratic candidates around the country, and Gov. Gavin Newsom, D-Calif., has been running a national media effort for months.
US Senate GOP Gets Party-Switcher Candidate
Manny Gonzales, New Mexico’s former Bernalillo County Sheriff, announced that he is leaving the Democratic Party and will challenge Sen. Martin Heinrich as a Republican. The move gives the Republicans a well-known candidate, but this is still a long-shot GOP conversion opportunity. If the Republicans are to maximize their opportunities on a favorable Senate map, however, they need to put more seats in play.
After serving two terms in the U.S. House and one on the Albuquerque City Council, Heinrich was elected to the Senate in 2012 and reelected in 2018. He averaged 52.5% of the vote in his two successful statewide runs.
Michigan Republican Changes His Mind
State Rep. Bill G. Schuette, R-Midland, announced last week that he would enter the open 8th Congressional District race, but this week he has changed his mind. Now, Schuette says he will run for reelection to the state House. The move may suggest an opening of the door for his father, former Attorney General, Appellate Judge, U.S. Congressman and U.S. Senate nominee Bill Schuette to run for the open 8th.
Since the 8th congressional district is politically marginal and will host one of the most competitive congressional races in the country, we can expect both parties to invest heavily in the 2024 campaign.
Democrats already have several strong candidates: state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet of Bay City (the national Democratic establishment choice), Michigan Board of Education President Pamela Pugh, Flint Mayor Sheldon Neeley and former Genessee County Democratic Party Chairman Dan Moilanen.