DETROIT (ChurchMilitant.com) – Donald Trump will attempt to set a mark tonight in the Iowa caucus that no nonincumbent has ever achieved.
In frigid temperatures, Iowa Republicans will attend their individual precinct caucus meetings to cast the first votes in the 2024 presidential election. No nonincumbent has ever topped the 50% plateau, but polling shows that Trump may well exceed that number when the counting is completed this evening.
President Donald J. Trump
Hillary Clinton reached the 50% mark against Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley in the 2016 Iowa Democratic caucuses but failed to reach beyond the majority mark, winning 50-49-1%. Because of a schedule change on the Democratic side, only the Republicans are voting tonight.
A total of five polls have been released since Wednesday, including the survey that is typically regarded as the state’s most accurate, the Selzer & Company poll routinely conducted for The Des Moines Register newspaper.
The Selzer poll, released late on Saturday night and conducted for The Des Moines Register and NBC News, found Mr. Trump holding 48% support ahead of former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley with 20% and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis posting 18% preference. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy trailed in single digits with 8%. Of the five polls conducted during the final week of campaigning, this is the only one that projects Trump under 50%.
The former president’s strongest showing comes in the latest released poll from the Emerson College study, which projects that Trump would lead Haley, DeSantis and Ramaswamy, 55-21-15-5%, respectively.
The other final-week polls came from Insider Advantage, which posted Trump to a 51-17-17-7% margin over Haley, DeSantis and Ramaswamy; Suffolk University, which sees a 54-22-13-6% spread; and Civiqs, which records a 55-14-14-8% division for the candidates in the same finishing order. All Iowa caucus polls can be found here.
While it appears that Trump will score a big victory tonight, falling significantly below 50% will ignite a series of stories and commentaries suggesting that he is not as strong as predicted and that a competitive race could be forming.
Another factor that likely favors Trump is Iowa’s forecasted poor weather. With temperatures expected to be well below zero, only the most committed supporters will brave the adverse weather conditions to attend the caucus meetings. In terms of fervent commitment, the Trump supporters appear to be the strongest.
The New Hampshire primary in eight days is expected to be closer than Iowa, but even a tight finish there might not do much to derail the Trump train. Nevada then follows on Feb. 6. The Republican side in the Silver State features both a primary and a caucus. The latter, however, is the only delegate assignment vehicle, and under party rules, candidates can only enter one of the two voting events.
Curiously, Haley is the only major candidate to choose the primary over the caucus. Therefore, regardless of the results, Haley will come away from Nevada winning a virtually uncontested primary but securing no delegate support.
All of these primaries and caucuses will lead to what could be a final showdown in Haley’s home state of South Carolina on Feb. 24 before an electorate that twice elected her governor. Aside from New Hampshire, Trump enjoys big leads in every early state, including South Carolina.
Tonight, the former president will claim Iowa. The only question to be answered pertains to his victory margin.
California: Schiff and Porter Lead New Poll
Rep. Adam Schiff
The University of California at Berkeley’s Institute for Government Studies, a regular California political pollster, released its latest U.S. Senate survey result. This poll for the Los Angeles Times again finds Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Burbank, leading the crowded field but with a smaller margin than found in other recent polls.
Baseball great Republican Steve Garvey, who had placed second in two December polls, is third here but still gained support when compared to the previous Berkeley IGS survey. Representative Katie Porter, D-Irvine, second in its previous polls, is also second now but remains stagnant at 17% support when compared to the two previous IGS studies. Representative Barbara Lee, D-Oakland, remains languishing with single-digit support at 9% preference.
The California jungle primary is scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5. The top two finishers, regardless of percentage attained or political party affiliation, will advance into the November general election.
NY Dems Choose Special Election Nominee
The local Erie and Niagara County Democratic Party chairmen announced that they have chosen state Sen. Tim Kennedy, D-Buffalo, as their special election congressional nominee once Rep. Brian Higgins, D-Buffalo, resigns in early February. Once the seat officially becomes vacant, Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul will call a special election to fill the seat for the remainder of the current term. The Republican chairmen will announce their pick at a later date.
Under New York election procedure, district county chairmen have the power to nominate a special election candidate instead of holding a party primary or special district convention.
After the announcement naming Sen. Kennedy as the special election Democratic nominee, Nate McMurray, a former western New York local official who ran two close campaigns in the former 27th District that collapsed in the 2021 reapportionment, declared that he will launch a regular Democratic primary challenge against Kennedy.