The presidential nomination process continues today in Michigan, where voters from both parties will cast their votes to apportion delegates. President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are expected to win their respective primaries by large margins.
Presidents Trump and Biden
According to an Emerson College poll, Biden leads U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn., by a spread of 75% to 5%. Additionally, 9% of voters plan to cast their votes for the “uncommitted slate,” a move encouraged by Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich., to protest Biden’s pro-Israel policy.
On the Republican side, Trump holds a 69% to 20% lead over former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley. Both Biden and Trump are considered “presumptive nominees” at this point.
The candidates will compete in the Super Tuesday primaries on March 5, where 16 states and territories will hold primaries or caucuses.
March 5 will also mark the first state primaries of the election cycle, with Alabama, Arkansas, California, North Carolina and Texas voting their full ballots. Mississippi will hold its presidential and state primary on March 12, followed by Illinois and Ohio on March 19. Arizona, Florida and Kansas will also hold standalone presidential primaries on March 19.
By the end of voting on March 19, it is highly likely that both Biden and Trump will have secured enough committed first-ballot delegates to clinch their respective party nominations.
Trump Leads Biden in Maine
In Maine, a surprising general election poll by Pan Atlantic Research suggests that Trump is leading Biden, a notable shift in a state previously considered difficult for Republican candidates. Trump shows a 38% to 32% lead over Biden, with 21% of respondents preferring other candidates. This would potentially benefit Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Trump’s advantage in Maine is largely attributed to his significant lead in the 2nd Congressional District, despite trailing Biden in the 1st Congressional District. With Maine’s unique electoral vote distribution, Trump could potentially secure three of the state’s electoral votes, leaving Biden with one.
Biden’s challenge in Maine is compounded by his low favorability rating, especially when compared to local politicians such as Independent Sen. Angus King, Democratic Reps. Jared Golden and Chellie Pingree, Gov. Janet Mills and Republican Sen. Susan Collins — all of whom have higher favorability ratings.
Biden’s unfavorability rating highlights a significant challenge and will require a positive shift in momentum to improve his standing. These early poll results, however, are subject to change as the election progresses.
Rogers Leads Michigan Senate Primary
A recent MRG Research poll, the first since retired Detroit police chief James Craig’s withdrawal from the Michigan Senate race, shows former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers leading the Michigan Republican primary with a 23% to 7% advantage over former Rep. Peter Meijer.
Former congressman and Libertarian Justin Amash is reportedly considering a run in the GOP primary but has not yet announced his candidacy. The Michigan state primary is scheduled for Aug. 6.
The Republican nominee is expected to face U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin in the general election, who is the overwhelming favorite to win the Democratic nomination
NY Legislature Rejects Redistricting Map
Yesterday, both the New York State Senate and Assembly rejected the congressional redistricting plan proposed by the New York State Independent Redistricting Commission, which made minimal changes to the court-imposed map from 2022. The Democratic-controlled legislature aims to create a map more favorable to their party, but this move is likely to yield a partisan gerrymandering lawsuit.
In an effort to limit where such a lawsuit could be filed, the State Senate passed a bill specifying that legal challenges should be brought in the state’s most populous and Democratic-leaning counties. Republicans argue that this tactic will be deemed unconstitutional.
Despite the Democrats’ recent victory in this redistricting battle, the conflict over New York’s congressional map is far from over.
