DETROIT (ChurchMilitant.com) – Democrats are losing the allegiance of minority voters, a February Gallup poll has found.
Minority-group voters are shifting to the right politically
The Gallup research organization released this month a nationwide study as part of its Social Series. The surveys of at least 1,000 U.S. adults are conducted throughout the year to examine a different topic each month.
The current study, which examined political party preference, found that both parties are gaining strength among some constituencies while weakening among others.
Republicans are gaining strength with minority voters, while Democrats are clearly becoming the party of the higher educated.
Minorities Shifting Right
Among Black voters, Republicans have gained almost 20 percentage points just since 2019 when compared to Gallup’s historical surveys. While still having a strong allegiance toward Democrats, Blacks now only favor the party by a 47-point span. In 2019, the Democratic margin over the Republicans was 66 points, and even that figure is down from the Democrats’ apex of 79 points in 2008.
Among Hispanics, Democrats reached their apex in 2016 when they enjoyed a 36-point preference margin over Republicans. The current survey found the Hispanic Democratic advantage today has slipped to only 12 percentage points.
The non-Hispanic White category has also moved considerably toward Republicans. In 2007, Democrats had a one-point edge over the GOP within this segment. Currently, the pollsters find the spread at 17 points between the two parties, favoring Republicans.
College Grads Shifting Left
The news isn’t all bad for Democrats, however. Gallup continues to see major shifts among higher-educated voters, who are severely breaking away from the Republicans.
University students march for leftist causes
Today, the trend shows a 29-point Democratic advantage over Republicans among those with postgraduate education — a considerable shift from 2010 when the Democratic edge was 11 percentage points.
During that same time frame, college graduates flipped from a nine-point preference for Republicans to what is now a five-point edge for Democrats — a shift of 14 percentage points.
The most radical change occurred among those who have not attended college. From 2006 to 2008, Democrats had a consistent 16-point edge among this segment.Gallup now finds almost the opposite result, with Republicans holding a 14-point advantage within this same category.
Messaging Will Matter
How these voting segments report their partisan allegiance does not necessarily translate to a similar change in voting behavior, however. Obviously, the candidates matter, as well as campaigns’ method of persuasion; individuals comprising today’s demographic groups appear more receptive to certain types of political messaging than they would have been previously.
This at least partially explains why vote patterns have not been running parallel to the sentiments detected in this poll or to similar sentiments expressed within other surveys.
This research tells us, however, that campaigns’ targeting strategy and communication approach might change for 2024 compared to elections from the past decade. The party that learns to best manage this changing electorate will be the one enjoying the most success in November.
