WASHINGTON, D.C. (ChurchMilitant.com) – An exclusive new report is shedding light on the taboo topic called “the 2020 presidential election.”
Results from the bellwether states
A statistical analysis provided exclusively to Church Militant on Tuesday demonstrates the unlikeliness of a genuine Donald J. Trump loss last November.
The report claims “the evidence will show that it was statistically improbable — ‘out of bounds’ — that Democrat candidate Joe Biden could’ve won the 2020 presidential election.”
Before factoring in battleground states, Trump and Biden were nearly tied, according to the report. Biden had claimed 233 of the necessary 270 electoral votes, while Trump had claimed 238, leaving 73 electoral votes up for grabs in five battleground states. The battleground states in question (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) were all won by Trump in 2016.
The report further showed that polling strongly suggested Trump would take four of the battleground states, with Biden taking Wisconsin by a mere one-point-margin. If polling was in fact accurate in predicting voting trends, Trump would have ended the election with 295 electoral votes.
In most states, Trump exceeded polling expectations, most notably in key bellwether states. Florida, Iowa and Ohio have consistently predicted presidential election winners for more than 40 years. Obviously, the states don’t “pick” the winner, they simply serve as almost-always-accurate predictors of the political mood of the nation. Trump won all three states in 2020, by a not-inconsiderable margin.
More importantly, he outperformed polling expectations, taking Florida by nearly one-and-a-half percentage point more than expected, Iowa by six points more, and Ohio by three points more. This means either the rest of the nation broke a decades-long series of voting patterns or else the bellwether states were simply all three significantly wrong in this particular hotly contested election.
Biden somehow overperformed in red-leaning states while underperforming in blue strongholds. Based on historical context factors, the Democratic candidate had a 69% chance of taking Pennsylvania, a 73% chance of taking Michigan, and nearly a 75% chance of taking Wisconsin. Yet he won each of them by only a narrow margin. Conversely, Biden had less than a 3% chance of winning Arizona and Georgia but supposedly overcame those impossible odds to claim them both.
The Grand Canyon State and the Peach State warrant special scrutiny. Democrats haven’t taken either state since Bill Clinton claimed them almost 30 years ago. Even Barack Obama, with his crackerjack 365 electoral vote win, didn’t take the two Republican bastions. According to the report, Biden’s likelihood of taking Arizona sat at 1.92% and his likelihood of taking Georgia at 2.19%. That he took either state against those odds is astonishing enough, but the chance of taking both was a mere 0.042%.
Trump had better statistical chances of winning than Biden. The chances of the brash GOP leader sweeping all five battleground states stood at 1 in 50, while Biden’s chances of doing the same stood at 1 in 4,173. In 60% of possible outcomes, Trump stood to win a minimum of 269 electoral votes, meaning his chances of victory were 150% higher than Biden’s.
Biden overcoming the odds in any one of the contexts noted by the report would be astonishing. His overcoming the odds in every category is, according to the report, out of the bounds of belief.