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Republican Resurgence

Disenfranchised U.S. voters are striking back following the questionable events surrounding Biden’s 2020 win. Church Militant’s Joseph Enders takes a closer look at the “red wave” hitting Virginia and New Jersey, as the historically blue states saw vast gains in Republican turnout in their gubernatorial races.

Republican Glenn Youngkin beat Democrat Terry McAuliffe by roughly two percentage points on Tuesday, making him the first Republican to lead Virginia’s executive branch in 11 years.

Incumbent Democrat Philip Murphy is projected to beat Republican Jack Ciattarelli, separated by a razor-thin 36,000 vote margin in New Jersey, a strong showing in the hard blue state. Biden, however, allegedly won Virginia by 10 points in 2020 and allegedly won New Jersey by a colossal 16 points. Many are thus calling it a referendum on Biden’s presidency.

MSNBC anchor: “Part of why President Biden actually went to Virginia is that the race represents a historical bellwether for both Democrats and Republicans.”

Bellwethers are traditional metrics used to predict the future results of elections. After Biden’s dubious 2020 win, conservatives felt deceived after these election predictors failed to pick the winner. For example, the winner of Ohio has become the eventual winner in every election since 1904 — over 100 years, with only two exceptions (once in 1944 and again in 1960).

Ohio has been correct 27 out of 29 times. That’s 93% accurate. Yet, in 2020, this bellwether was dead wrong, despite Trump winning the state by eight points.

Florida has predicted the winner with 95% accuracy, calling 22 out of 23 elections correctly (dating back to 1928). The only exception: that same 1960 election. Trump won Florida by three points, making yet another bellwether inaccurate. 

A cluster of 17 counties has also consistently predicted the winner with 88% accuracy. It even predicted the notorious 1960 election, where the counties were still 53% accurate. This was their worst prediction on record until 2020, where the predictive value of these counties evaporated to only 18% accuracy, their worst prediction on record by far.

Media pundits are all looking at the current red wave as a bellwether for the upcoming midterms. But the question remains: Will current bellwethers be followed — or steamrolled by election irregularities as they were in 2020?

To get the full story on irregularities plaguing the 2020 election, check out Church Militant’s Special Assignment: Election Theft.

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