DETROIT (ChurchMilitant.com) – Stunning new polling data may explain former GOP Gov. Larry Hogan’s unexpected jump into the Maryland race for the U.S. Senate.
Former GOP Gov. Larry Hogan and Rep. David Trone, D-Md.
A release from Emerson College finds Hogan tied with U.S. Rep. David Trone, D-Potomac, founder of the Total Beverage chain store, at 42% apiece.
Trone has already spent $23 million to win the Democratic Party nomination.
Hogan would lead Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, 44-37%, if she were to become the Democratic nominee.
Hogan’s Opponent Matters
Independent voters and even Democrats are leaning toward Hogan. If Trone were Hogan’s general election opponent, Hogan would lead among Independents and rather stunningly attracts approximately one-quarter of Democratic voters.
With Alsobrooks as the opponent, Hogan’s numbers are much better. Within this pairing, he would lead among Independents 43-18% while converting 31% of Democratic voters.
The Emerson College results are encouraging for Hogan because they confirm data that internal Republican polling was producing to convince the former governor to enter the race. But it will remain a challenge for him to win a federal race as a Republican in Maryland in a presidential election year, especially with an unpopular Donald Trump leading the GOP ballot.
Hogan left the governor’s office as the most popular two-term state chief executive in Maryland history. He will, however, need every bit of that residual goodwill to place himself in a position to win the U.S. Senate race come November.
So Who Will Hogan Face?
Even though Trone has been advertising for almost a year to secure the Democratic nomination, only recently has Trone established a clear polling advantage. The current Emerson survey reveals his best showing, nearly a 2-to-1 division, but also features a large number of respondents who are either undecided or won’t say whom they support.
Angela Alsobrooks
The Democratic ballot test finds Rep. Trone holding a 32-17% lead over Alsobrooks.
Alsobrooks’ campaign strategy is not to counter Trone’s massive spending until the two move much closer to the state’s May 14 primary election. Knowing that she cannot match Rep. Trone’s personal wealth, and his willingness to spend it on his political career, Alsobrooks is pooling her money until the closing weeks. She had raised just over $5 million through year-end 2023 with $3.1 million cash on hand.
She has developed strong support within the African American community, which is a key component to winning a Maryland Democratic primary. Therefore, despite what the current polling might say, Alsobrooks has resources and a plan to become highly competitive at the point when voting begins.
Biden Still Solid in Maryland
When respondents were asked about their preferences on the presidential race, President Joe Biden topped former President Donald Trump by a 55-32% margin, relatively close to the 2020 actual Maryland presidential vote count of 65-32%.
A danger sign does appear for Biden, however. When adding Independents Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West along with Green Party prospective nominee Jill Stein, the president drops below majority support to 47%. Trump is second here with 31% while Kennedy and West draw 6 and 1%, respectively. Stein also gets on the board at 1%.
Therefore, while the minor candidates draw almost exclusively from Biden under this scenario, the president would still be in no danger of losing the state, though his falling below majority support in such a strong Democratic domain would be a surprising outcome.
