DETROIT (ChurchMilitant.com) As expected, President Biden and former President Donald Trump easily captured large percentages of voter support last night as they won each party’s respective Michigan primary elections.
Presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump
President Biden won 81.1% of the Democratic vote, despite nearly 14% of Democrats opting for the “uncommitted delegate slate,” a choice promoted by Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich., as a protest against Biden’s stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict.
On the Republican side, Trump garnered 68.2% of the vote, aligning with pollsters’ expectations.
Republican turnout surpassed that of Democrats, with an estimated 1.13 million GOP voters compared to approximately 778,000 Democratic voters.
This trend marks the fourth consecutive election where Republican participation has outpaced Democratic turnout in Michigan, indicating a potential enthusiasm gap among Democrats in this pivotal swing state. Just over 59.2% of voters chose to vote in the Republican primary.
The lower turnout among Democrats in the Michigan primary compared to Republicans suggests a lack of enthusiasm for their presumptive nominee. This trend could be a significant concern for the Democratic Party, particularly in a crucial swing state like Michigan.
This primary election concludes the series of votes leading up to Super Tuesday on March 5, when 16 states and territories will hold their primaries or caucuses, setting the stage for the next phase of the nomination process.
New York Redistricting Advances
The Democratic supermajority in the New York State Assembly and Senate recently revealed a new congressional redistricting map that has taken many by surprise. However, upon closer examination, the map suggests that party leaders were aware of the potential legal challenges they could face if they pushed their partisan interests too far.
As reported earlier, the state’s redistricting commission made only cosmetic changes in the plan the high court created for the 2022 election. Thus, the members left the court footprint almost completely intact, which the legislature then rejected. When the people adopted a citizens’ redistricting commission ballot proposition, the process allowed the legislature to either approve or reject the commission-adopted plans.
There is a widespread misconception that the 2022 court-drawn map favored Republicans, but this is not the case. According to analysts from Dave’s Redistricting App, the map provided Republicans with a clear partisan advantage in only three of the state’s 26 seats. Despite this, GOP candidates managed to secure victories in 11 races, indicating that they outperformed the statistical expectations of the map.
In New York’s Feb. 13 special election, the Republican Party lost one of its seats in Long Island’s 3rd District to Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi, changing the New York delegation’s composition to 15 Democrats and 10 Republicans. The upcoming special election on April 30 is expected to fill the 26th Congressional District that was vacated by resigned Democratic Rep. Brian Higgins with fellow Democratic state Sen. Tim Kennedy, likely shifting the balance to 16 Democrats and 10 Republicans.
Most believed the legislators rejected the commission map because they wanted a more aggressive plan. The commission action, however, may have put the Democratic leadership in a legal box. The 2022 map landed in court because the legislature went overboard in drawing a map that would have yielded only four seats for the Republicans and 22 for the Democrats. Even the Democratic courts rejected this as an egregious gerrymander, hence the plan was deemed illegal.
After the redistricting commission members rubber-stamped the court map at the end of last week, the legislature was left in a difficult position, as any further partisan adjustments could have exposed them to a lawsuit alleging partisan gerrymandering.
Despite this, the new map still appears to favor Democrats slightly more than the current one. Several Republicans, including Reps. Anthony D’Esposito, Mike Lawler, and Brandon Williams are in districts that President Biden won in 2020, with Williams’ district becoming slightly more Democratic. Conversely, Republican Reps. Nick LaLota, Andrew Garbarino, Nicole Malliotakis, Marc Molinaro and Democrat Pat Ryan find their districts slightly more favorable.
The new map awaits approval from Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul and, despite ongoing competitiveness, seems to represent the best possible outcome for Republicans, who feared a more drastic redraw. As a result, the 2024 New York congressional landscape is expected to closely resemble that of 2022.
Wisconsin’s Race for US Senate
Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race just got more interesting.
Eric Hovde and Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis.
Last week, Republican businessman Eric Hovde announced his candidacy. This week, the first poll matching him against two-term incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin was released by Emerson College. While the polling sample indicates support for Donald Trump at 45% compared to 42% for Joe Biden, Democratic incumbent Baldwin leads the Senate race with 46% support compared to Hovde’s 39%.
At first glance, the poll might appear encouraging for Republicans, as Senator Baldwin is below 50% and holds only a single-digit lead against a relatively unknown opponent. However, the sample includes more Republicans (35%) than Democrats (33%), with an additional 32% identifying as non-affiliated. Although Wisconsin does not register voters by political party, voter history suggests that the poll, despite being weighted to reflect the actual electorate, may have a slight Republican skew.
Tennessee’s Race for US House
In a developing trend this election cycle, as part of which Republican U.S. House members Pat Fallon and Victoria Spartz reversed their retirement announcements to seek reelection, Tennessee’s Republican congressional delegation, including Sen. Marsha Blackburn, is now publicly encouraging Rep. Mark Green to reconsider his decision to retire.
Last week, Green, who serves as the chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, announced he would not pursue a fourth term.
With the Tennessee candidate filing deadline set for April 4 for the Aug. 1 primary, there is still time for Green to change his mind, potentially reducing the number of open House seats.
