DETROIT (ChurchMilitant.com) – The first special election, this one to replace expelled Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y., is scheduled for Feb. 13 and is the most likely of the four to switch party control. The party leaders have chosen nominees, so the February election is just one vote for control of the seat.
The Democratic nominee is a familiar face: former U.S. Rep. Tom Suozzi, D-N.Y., who represented the district for three terms. He gave up the seat in the last election to run an ill-fated Democratic primary challenge to Gov. Kathy Hochul. Now, Mr. Suozzi has the opportunity of quickly returning to bring back the seat to his party that Mr. Santos captured with a 20,420 vote spread in the 2022 election.
The Republicans nominated two-term Nassau County Legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip, who technically remains a registered Democrat but is running on the Republican ticket. She was born in Ethiopia but then migrated to Israel, where she became a member of the Israel Defense Force Paratroopers Brigade and served as a gunsmith.
No polling is yet available, but the Long Island electorate has been voting more Republican in the past two elections. While Mr. Suozzi is obviously a strong candidate for the Democrats, it should be noted that, as Nassau County Executive, he was defeated for reelection in 2009 and failed to regain the position in 2013.
Therefore, while the Democratic nominee should be viewed as the favorite to convert the seat back to his party’s column, a Pilip upset remains a possibility.
California Special Elections
Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom announced yesterday that the special election to replace resigned Rep. Kevin McCarthy will be held on March 19, two weeks after the California state primary on March 5. Therefore, two candidates will advance to the regular 2024 general election before the special vote is even held. Under California election law, if no candidate receives majority support in the first election, a runoff between the top two finishers will be held at a later date. Governor Newsom has scheduled the potential runoff for May 21.
CA-20 is the safest Republican seat in California. State Assemblyman Vince Fong, R-Bakersfield, is favored to succeed McCarthy. His strongest competitor appears to be Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux.
When McCarthy announced his intention to resign the seat before the end of 2023, Fong had already filed and been qualified for a reelection ballot position. The California Secretary of State, Democrat Shirley Weber, ruled that since he was already an official Assembly candidate, he could not switch to the congressional campaign. Fong challenged her ruling before a California Superior Court, and the judge granted his petition to enter the congressional race, overruling Weber’s decision.
Armed with McCarthy’s endorsement and already representing 58% of the 20th Congressional District constituency, Fong is on the inside track toward winning the special election. In any event, the Republicans will hold this seat in the special and regular elections.
Ohio Special Elections
Republican Gov. Mike DeWine has scheduled the special election to replace resigning Rep. Bill Johnson, R-Marietta, concurrently with the Ohio state primary, which is scheduled for March 19. The special general will then be held on June 11. The Republican race is largely between two state legislators: state Sen. Mike Rulli, R-Leetonia, and state Rep. Reggie Stoltzfus, R-Delaware. Others could file before the Jan. 19 special election candidate declaration deadline, but the two aforementioned candidates will likely be the principal competitors.
With the FiveThirtyEight data organization rating OH-6 as R+31 and the fourth most Republican district in the state, the Republican primary will ultimately decide Johnson’s successor. Democrats have only minor candidates filed for the regular election, so the June 11 special general will likely be a pro forma election.
More Retirements and Resignations
Another retirement announcement comes from three-term Indiana U.S. Rep. Greg Pence, R-Columbus, brother of former Vice President Mike Pence. Saying it is an “honor and privilege” to serve the people of Indiana’s 6th Congressional District, Pence stated that he decided he will not seek a fourth term. The open seat count now ticks upward to 44. Four of these races will be decided in special elections before the regular election.
The 6th District will remain in Republican hands. The FiveThirtyEight rates the seat as R+37, making it the safest Indiana seat for the GOP. A majority of the Hoosier State Republican delegation (4 of 7) will not be seeking reelection. Representatives Victoria Spartz, R-Noblesville, Larry Bucshon, R-Evansville, and Pence are retiring. Representative Jim Banks, R-Columbia City, is running for the Senate.
As mentioned above, among the 44 open U.S. House seats are four special elections that will occur before the regular election. Three of the four are now scheduled and getting underway.
New York’s U.S. Rep. Brian Higgins, D-Buffalo, will resign his seat during the first week of February after serving almost 20 years in the House. Once the seat is officially vacant, Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul will schedule a special election.
With five-term Buffalo Democratic Mayor Byron Brown announcing that he will not compete for the open congressional seat, this special election will carry little suspense. Since the county party chairmen have the power to nominate candidates for special elections, it appears that state Sen. Tim Kennedy will be the Democratic candidate selected to replace Higgins. With a FiveThirtyEight rating of D+18, Kennedy will become a prohibitive favorite to replace Higgins regardless of who the Republicans field.
In Mississippi, former Democratic Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley, who held GOP Gov. Tate Reeves to a 51-48% reelection victory in November, said he will not challenge Republican Sen. Roger Wicker later this year but indicated that his time in politics is not yet over. This could mean he is already laying the groundwork to run for governor in 2027. Reeves will be ineligible to stand for a third term. With Mississippi candidate filing closing tomorrow, it is unlikely the Democrats will field a strong candidate against Wicker.
Vermont’s Gubernatorial Race: Democratic Former Local Official Files
Despite running in one of the most heavily Democratic states, Republican Gov. Phil Scott consistently ranks as the most popular state chief executive in the country. While he has yet to announce that he will seek a fifth two-year term, Vermont and New Hampshire are the only states that limit their governors to two years between elections. Former Middlebury Town Selectman Esther Charlestin announced this week that she will seek the Democratic gubernatorial nomination.
If Scott decides to retire, the Democrats will have the inside track toward converting the state House. If he runs again, however, Scott becomes a prohibitive favorite.